Scouting Mavericks-Celtics: Why regular-season matchups don’t tell the full story (2024)

The Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics are the final teams remaining in the playoffs and will meet for Game 1 of the NBA Finals in Boston on Thursday.

It’s not a surprise to see Boston representing the Eastern Conference, considering their dominant regular season that resulted in the best record in the league at 64-18. The Celtics defeated the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers on their way to the NBA Finals. It’s the second Finals in the last three years for Boston.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks entered the postseason as the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference and took down the LA Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves to get to the NBA’s brightest stage. The last time they reached this point of the season resulted in the franchise’s lone championship in 2011.

The Mavericks are looking to become the first No. 5 seed to win an NBA championship since the current 16-team playoff format began 40 years ago. Since the 1983-84 season, only one team seeded fourth or lower has lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy — the 1994-95 Rockets, who were the sixth seed in the Western Conference.

So who has the advantage? Here’s an early scouting report of the series, which also includes a look at the two-game regular season series that fell in Boston’s favor:

Season series vs. Celtics (Boston won 2-0)

Jan. 22: Celtics 119, Mavericks 110

Despite a triple-double from Luka Doncic, the Mavericks were not able to find an offensive rhythm, as the Celtics held Doncic and Kyrie Irving to a combined 21 of 50 (42%) shooting line, with Doncic only making two threes throughout the game. In contrast, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 73 points, each eclipsing the 30-point mark.

March 1: Celtics 138, Mavericks 110

Head coach Jason Kidd called this loss, “a great test to see where we are with the new pieces,” after significantly retooling Dallas’ roster in February. As such, the Mavericks were ironing out kinks while trying to topple the well-oiled machine of the No. 1 team in the East. Still, Doncic dropped a 37-point triple-double, outcompeting fellow MVP candidate Tatum, and P.J. Washington turned in a solid 17-point, seven-rebound performance, with Dallas taking more positives from the game than the score might indicate.

Personnel

It’s difficult to gameplan for a team with a limited sample size of just two games from the regular season. The limited amount of playing history won’t tell the entire story, so the Mavericks will have to rely on the majority of Boston’s postseason run to create an accurate scouting report.

The Mavericks are led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but the Celtics also have a dynamic duo in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Both players are similar in size and are capable of scoring in bunches, which could create difficulty on Dallas’ wing defenders Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington. Tatum and Brown have combined to average 51 points per game throughout the playoffs. Brown, the Eastern Conference finals MVP winner, has emerged as a three-level scorer and can shoulder the scoring load like Tatum.

Aside from the stars, the Mavericks will need to focus on Jrue Holiday, who will probably have the defensive assignment of guarding Irving. The veteran guard is one of the most tenacious defenders in the league, and he also has the ability to knock down perimeter shots.

Derrick White has given Boston a significant scoring boost and another perimeter defender. He scored 16.8 points per game in the East finals and nailed the series-clinching 3-pointer to help Boston eliminate the Pacers.

Last but not least is the Celtics’ elder statesman, Al Horford. The 17-year veteran is still capable of making key plays on both ends of the floor, evident by his 23 points in Game 3 against Indiana.

Mavericks fans should be quite familiar with Boston’s X-factor. Kristaps Porzingis, who spent three seasons with the Mavericks, is ramping up from a right soleus strain that caused him to miss most of the postseason. His status for Game 1 is uncertain, but Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said he feels confident with his progress as of Friday afternoon. If healthy, Porzingis can stretch the floor with his 3-point shooting, have an impact on the rebounding battle and pose a significant threat on the defensive end.

Who has the edge?

It’s hard not to be impressed by what Dallas has been able to accomplish since adding Washington and Daniel Gafford to the team at the trade deadline. Both players added a dynamic improvement to the Mavericks on both ends of the floor.

Boston has 3-point shooters at every position on the floor, along with lockdown defenders. However, they haven’t played a team with the star power, versatility or depth like the Mavericks.

As long as Doncic and Irving are playing to their ceilings, the Mavericks shouldn’t have much difficulty scoring the ball. Dallas’ role players will be vital, but production from its stars is imperative. In order to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy, the Mavericks will need to replicate the defensive intensity they played with in the previous three rounds.