Bengals draft strategy: RB is not focal point, but Joe Mixon’s contract lingers (2024)

In this 10-part series, Paul Dehner Jr. and Jay Morrison take a deep dive into the Bengals’ draft strategy by taking stock of each position and addressing where need meets fit. We analyze the current roster, trends, analytics, sleepers, bold moves and also opinions from our draft gurus Dane Brugler and Joe Goodberry.

The lineup

• April 6: Offensive line
• April 7: Defensive tackle
• April 8: Tight end
• April 9: Edge rusher
• April 13: Quarterback
• April 14: Linebacker
• April 15: Running back
• April 16: Cornerback
• April 20: Safety
• April 21: Wide receiver

Positional priority

Nine of 10. There’s little reason to go crazy at this position with Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard and last year’s sixth-round pick Trayveon Williams all in the stable. More than likely a late pick in Day 3 or going the undrafted free agent route would fit the state of the team.

Contract signed through …

2020

Joe Mixon. He enters his contract year with the organization prepared for a holdout if they can’t agree to a long-term deal.

2021

Giovani Bernard. Signed an extension prior to last season as the team values his leadership, ability as a third-down back and he can take over the load effectively if Mixon misses some time.

2022

Trayveon Williams. He didn’t see much of the field on offense last year since the running backs stayed relatively healthy, so it’s tough to tell what he could bring if given a chance.

Rodney Anderson. The 2019 sixth-rounder will try to make yet another return from devastating injury, which has been the theme of his football career.

Rate the class

Solid. You won’t see the top of the draft look like some in recent years featuring top-20 running back picks, but the standard smattering of potential impact players who will come off the board on the second and third day is a nice lot. There should be plenty from which to choose if the Bengals opted to go that direction.

NFL trend

Mixon topped 275 touches each of the last two seasons. He’s one of only three running backs to do so over the span along with Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott and Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey.

Consider that company, if you will. After McCaffery inked his $16M per year contract his week, those are now the two highest-paid running backs in NFL history. Mixon is in negotiations now. That’s territory the Bengals aren’t going to go here.

Plus, Mixon turns 24 in July. The understandable unwillingness of teams to use older backs as workhorses has changed dramatically over the last four years.

Take a look at the trend which shows the dropoff of 25-or-older backs getting a load of touches as well as the lack of proof that using either plan makes a difference in making the playoffs. Among the total numbers this past decade, 45 of 98 teams featuring one back getting 275-plus touches made the postseason. About a coin flip.

Bengals' recent draft history

• 2019: Trayveon Williams (sixth, 182 overall); Rodney Anderson (sixth, 211 overall)
• 2018: Mark Walton (fourth, 112 overall)
• 2017: Joe Mixon (second, 48 overall)
• 2016: None
• 2015: None
• 2014: Jeremy Hill (second, 55 overall)
• 2013: Giovani Bernard (second, 37 overall); Rex Burkhead (sixth, 190 overall)

Key variable

The future of Mixon. The Bengals would like to do an extension with Mixon. His position might not be the most valuable, but there is value in being a great player on a team that has too few of those. He’s a big part of the energy that drives the team and offense. The McCaffrey extension making him the highest-paid RB in football history is an interesting twist. If Mixon shows up looking for a contract in that vicinity, that will be the end of that discussion and the team will start thinking about who the running back of the future will be. Picking that player would seem like a bridge better off being crossed in the 2021 draft and seeing how negotiations pan out this fall – particularly how aggressive of a stance Mixon takes toward a potential holdout – but it’s the elephant in the room right now.

PFF college research

If looking for who were the toughest running backs to tackle, not based on opportunities but efficiency, then utilizing Pro Football Focus’ signature stat of missed tackle forced per attempt is the metric.

Here at the top performers, when looking at draft-eligible running backs:

• Zack Moss, Utah: 0.38
• Malcolm Perry, Navy: 0.37
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU: 0.33
• Cam Akers, FSU: 0.33
• Jason Huntley, New Mexico State: 0.33
• Deejay Dallas, Miami: 0.31
• Javon Leake, Maryland: 0.31

Senior Bowl spotlight

Antonio Gibson, Memphis. He shined for the Bengals in the Senior Bowl. Plenty of explosion and a real missed-tackle machine. He’s transitioning to running back from more of a receiver role and could offer some dynamic versatility if used in a passing attack like the one Burrow dominated with at LSU. The Bengals were able to get a good look at how he would play as a running back when he led the South team with 11 carries for 68 yards, including a 23-yarder.

Sleeper to track

Raymond Calais, Louisiana. If looking for a late-round candidate to grow at the next level, but with physical traits you can love, this would be a primary target. Calais brings speed to burn, the question will be about developing the rest of his game. But his 8.3 yards per carry the last two years tell you all you need to know about his home run capability.

Bold move

Remember when the Bengals selected Mark Walton? OK, forget the five arrests and two releases since. Think about the concept. The Bengals took a chance at a position they weren’t in much need of because they felt significant talent fell into their lap there at the top of the fourth round. That would be the boldest I could see from this team at running back this year. If you saw Akers from Florida State or Moss from Utah somehow slide to the top of the third day, it might tempt the Bengals. It feels highly unlikely, but since we’ve seen a similar move before I’ll put it here as a bold option.

Brugler background

The Athletic’s draft expert in The Beast on University of Cincinnati product Mike Warren and how he projects to the NFL:

“Warren is a decisive, tough-minded inside runner, bouncing through congestion with his run balance. While gaining yards after contact is a key part of his game, the absence of explosive qualities could put a low ceiling on his pro potential. Overall, Warren isn’t a dynamic make-you-miss back and needs to get better as a blocker, but he runs with the compact power and quick feet to be a banger between the tackles, projecting as a potential backup option.”

Goodberry take

Bengals/draft analyst Joe Goodberry offers his film review of the best Bengals fits and how they could potentially affect the roster.

Bengals Positional Draft Preview from The Athletic on Vimeo.

They said it

Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin at the combine on the priority list of extensions and if there is a first domino that needs to fall:

"I don't know what domino needs to fall, we'll have to see what we can get done in a lot of different areas. It's a zero-sum game. There's a pie and you use the pie up and the next guy gets a little smaller piece. We'll fit it together. We've got our priorities. I can't predict what will get done and what won't. We're going to work to get as much of it done as we can.

Where they’ll take one

They won’t. This draft feels more like an undrafted free agent enters the mix rather than even using a late-round selection on the position. Basically kicking the running back can down the road to next year until there is more information. In the meantime, Mixon, Bernard and Williams are more than enough weaponry to get through this year.

Prediction

Brian Herrien, Georgia, UDFA. A favorite Bengals move in searching for diamonds in the rough is plucking a backup where a star or two took the majority of the shine or opportunity. Nowhere is that more the case than the UGA running back position where Herrien got stuck behind Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift. That would be a heck of an NFL stable of backs and if Herrien can develop in the NFL there could be hidden potential coming out of the premier college running back factory.

(Top photo of Antonio Gibson: Vasha Hunt / USA Today)

Paul Dehner Jr. is a senior writer and podcast host for The Athletic. He's been covering the Bengals and NFL since 2009, most notably, for six seasons with The Cincinnati Enquirer. He's born, raised and proudly Cincinnati. Follow Paul on Twitter @pauldehnerjr